Zachary GirsbergerOctober Oracle: World Series
October 26th 2010 02:44
Category: No Category
The final edition of my October Oracle is here, and thus I need to begin with an apology. I was wrong, flat out dead wrong, about the LCS. I thought the Giants could not muster runs or big hits against Philly—wrong. I thought the Phillies had an advantage in almost every area, and in the regular season, they did, but the Giants had breakthroughs with Ross and Uribe, and the core of Philadelphia’s lineup crumbled. In the AL, I thought that the matchups would work out for the Yankees, and in theory, they should have, but theory does not always pan out in baseball. The Yankees experience was to be their saving grace, and it did show up now and again, but not regularly enough to win, so again, I was wrong.
Now at this point, you may wonder why even bother to read this post when I was wrong before and I will admit in the position of a reader I would question myself as well. That said, I will have you look back to the division series when I went 15-1 on my picks (yes, there were only fifteen games, but I had the Yankees dropping one) so predictions can be fickle. That said, here is my analysis on the World Series between the first-time appearing Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants.
San Francisco Giants:
Why they will win the Series:
The Giants have managed to get the big hit, scrape together just enough runs to win, and play good enough defense not to cost many runs. The Giants also have been lucky, with a bounces going their way more often than not, but you cannot quantify luck. The pitching staff of the Giants also has more depth, and the bullpen has showed it can redeem a starter if he falters (see game 6). The Giants also have been tested more than the Rangers, needing to win on the final day of the regular season, and not needing more than two games to put a team away.
Why thy will lose the Series:
The Giants do not have a good team on paper. They do not have a strong lineup in terms of average or power, nor do they play exceptional defense. Bochy has been a revelation managing this team to success, but against the best the American League has to offer, magic with the lineup may not be enough to put up the same numbers the Rangers are able to sustain.
Texas Rangers:
Why they will win the Series:
Texas has beaten the best of the American league, taking out the top two teams in terms of wins, both from the toughest division in baseball—the AL East—so do not doubt their ability to play with the best. Texas also has slugging power and young pitching, both of which have proven themselves in two series, and likely will again. Texas also gets Cliff Lee to start game one, which sets up for more favorable matchups down the stretch, and if needed Lee could potentially start three games, which is a nightmare for a productive lineup. The Rangers also have speed on the base paths, which with an average defensive team such as the Giants, could lead to unearned runs aplenty.
Why they will lose the Series:
The Rangers pitching staff does not have the depth of the Giants, and their closer Feliz did not look great in any of his appearances—all of which were non-save appearances—in the ALCS, so late inning struggles could undermine close wins. The bullpen also has been used quite a bit, which with the layoff may not be a factor, but it still adds to the load already sustained after the regular season. The Rangers also will play up to four games without a DH, something they only do for a handful of games per year.
Key Notes:
The Rangers have announced that they will play Vladdy as an outfielder for games one and two, so they do not lose his bat in his lineup. My only question is whether or not his bat will make up for his diminished fielding.
The Rangers have not made a definite decision on Cliff Lee playing on short rest or not, it will likely come down to whether or not they have the lead come game four.
The Giants seem to be sticking with their rotation of Cain starting game 3, as of the release of this column, and I think that the moves may create a disadvantage at home for San Francisco.
My Prediction: Giants in 7
This series is bloody difficult because neither team was expected to be here, this far in the season. I have to say that my decision is based on one factor, Lee has never pitched on short rest, and I do not think the Rangers will pitch him on short rest. This said, I think the Giants win in seven because they just seem to be getting all the luck, having every bounce go their way, and the pitching has been a revelation. If Lee does start three games, I lean towards the Rangers in seven, but my official prediction is the Giants.
Now at this point, you may wonder why even bother to read this post when I was wrong before and I will admit in the position of a reader I would question myself as well. That said, I will have you look back to the division series when I went 15-1 on my picks (yes, there were only fifteen games, but I had the Yankees dropping one) so predictions can be fickle. That said, here is my analysis on the World Series between the first-time appearing Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants.
San Francisco Giants:
Why they will win the Series:
The Giants have managed to get the big hit, scrape together just enough runs to win, and play good enough defense not to cost many runs. The Giants also have been lucky, with a bounces going their way more often than not, but you cannot quantify luck. The pitching staff of the Giants also has more depth, and the bullpen has showed it can redeem a starter if he falters (see game 6). The Giants also have been tested more than the Rangers, needing to win on the final day of the regular season, and not needing more than two games to put a team away.
Why thy will lose the Series:
The Giants do not have a good team on paper. They do not have a strong lineup in terms of average or power, nor do they play exceptional defense. Bochy has been a revelation managing this team to success, but against the best the American League has to offer, magic with the lineup may not be enough to put up the same numbers the Rangers are able to sustain.
Texas Rangers:
Why they will win the Series:
Texas has beaten the best of the American league, taking out the top two teams in terms of wins, both from the toughest division in baseball—the AL East—so do not doubt their ability to play with the best. Texas also has slugging power and young pitching, both of which have proven themselves in two series, and likely will again. Texas also gets Cliff Lee to start game one, which sets up for more favorable matchups down the stretch, and if needed Lee could potentially start three games, which is a nightmare for a productive lineup. The Rangers also have speed on the base paths, which with an average defensive team such as the Giants, could lead to unearned runs aplenty.
Why they will lose the Series:
The Rangers pitching staff does not have the depth of the Giants, and their closer Feliz did not look great in any of his appearances—all of which were non-save appearances—in the ALCS, so late inning struggles could undermine close wins. The bullpen also has been used quite a bit, which with the layoff may not be a factor, but it still adds to the load already sustained after the regular season. The Rangers also will play up to four games without a DH, something they only do for a handful of games per year.
Key Notes:
The Rangers have announced that they will play Vladdy as an outfielder for games one and two, so they do not lose his bat in his lineup. My only question is whether or not his bat will make up for his diminished fielding.
The Rangers have not made a definite decision on Cliff Lee playing on short rest or not, it will likely come down to whether or not they have the lead come game four.
The Giants seem to be sticking with their rotation of Cain starting game 3, as of the release of this column, and I think that the moves may create a disadvantage at home for San Francisco.
My Prediction: Giants in 7
This series is bloody difficult because neither team was expected to be here, this far in the season. I have to say that my decision is based on one factor, Lee has never pitched on short rest, and I do not think the Rangers will pitch him on short rest. This said, I think the Giants win in seven because they just seem to be getting all the luck, having every bounce go their way, and the pitching has been a revelation. If Lee does start three games, I lean towards the Rangers in seven, but my official prediction is the Giants.
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