Zachary GirsbergerOctober Oracle: Championship Series
October 14th 2010 00:01
Category: No Category
Before the Championship Series begin, I want to look back at the Division Series results, see how my predictions stacked up with what happened and how each team came out, and then look ahead to the upcoming games.
If you missed division series columns before or just want to review them, here are the AL predictions and here are the NL predictions.
ALDS Review:
Texas Rangers versus the Tampa Bay Rays:
While I had the series going five games, I had the Rangers winning the series as a whole, and I had Lee winning as many games as the Rays, I did not see the home team losing every game in the series, completely throwing the concept of home-field advantage to the wind. Texas did come out with a win, but looked fairly shaky at home, unable to put the series away, and looked bad at home, unable to score runs like they could in Tampa.
New York Yankees versus the Minnesota Twins:
The Yankees looked dominant in the series, which I thought was a little surprising due to the struggles of the previous month. I do take pleasure knowing that I got the call right, even though Girardi shocked me with his bold moves of not play Joba and also not even carrying A.J. Burnett on the roster for the series. The Yanks looked great, able to win with solid starting pitching and getting the big hit when they needed too. Evidently, the Twins really cannot stop looking at the Yankees pinstripes, and apparently thought that wearing similar stripes (in game 2) would help get a win.
NLDS Review
Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds:
The Phillies won in dominant fashion as well, with a sweep of various pitching records. I had the sweep called from the beginning, but I must admit, I did not anticipate Hamels’ domination, or Halladay actually pulling another no-hitter out of his hat. The Phil’s looked brilliant with their pitching and got the runs they needed to win. Philadelphia looks posed to join (if they have not already) the Yankees and the Red Sox as perennial big-spending contenders.
San Francisco and Atlanta:
Unfortunately for Bobby Cox and all the sentimental fans, I got this call perfect as well with a 3-1 series win for the Giants. San Francisco may not be able to hit much, but with their pitching in that series, the Giants got all the hits they needed. The Giants’ pitching looks like it may be able to standup to the Phillies and the offense has hit the Phillies well this season. The Giants came out with their first playoff wins in sometime and looked solid doing so.
Review of my picks:
I must say that I am amazed at my accuracy (or luck) when it came to picking the division series. I may not have been perfect (I had the Yankees losing one game instead of sweeping), but I did hit on all of my other points, so perhaps what is forthcoming you may want to consider (or my luck could fade, we will see).
Now I will look at the upcoming Championship Series, give you a reason why each team can win the series, and then give you my thoughts on the outcome.
American League Championship Series: Yankees versus Rangers:
Why the Yankees could win:
The Yankees have obviously looked dominant this postseason in their sweep of the Twins, but that does not mean all their problems are over. That said, the Yankees know what they will get out of Sabathia, and if Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes continue pitching at a level near as well as they did this past week, the Yankees have the ability to shut the Rangers down. The Yankees also have the uncanny ability to get the big hit and scratch in just enough wins to get the victory. Throw in the fact that Rivera has looked like his normal postseason self, and the Yankees look ripe to repeat as World Series participants.
Why the Rangers could win:
The Rangers actually have a sweet setup due to their series with the Rays, now having Lee matching up to pitch game three and a potential game seven, and I would not bet against Lee in the postseason versus the Yankees (see 2009 World Series). The Rangers have also been great at home, (51 wins) so if they prove that the Rays just have their number in Texas, the Rangers may pull off a series win. The pitching staff may be young, and the offense may have some holes, but the bullpen has been superb (3.38 ERA) this season. The Rangers have a chance at making their first World Series if their pitching does not make big mistakes.
Who will win?
This series is rough,because Hughes does not match up well with Lee, so if it goes to a game seven, the Yankees have to overcome Lee’s brilliant postseason history. I think that starting Burnett for game three makes much more sense than starting Hughes –not because Hughes can’t beat Lee, but because Burnett when he is on is a top five starter in terms of his stuff.**UPDATE The Yankees have announced that Pettitte will start Game Three, moving Hughes up to Game Two. This move ends my question of Game Three because Andy is a proven postseason starter.** I think the Yankees win the series in six (4-2), because of the level of experience of the Yankees, as well as having an edge when it comes to a seven game series, with Lee only pitching in a maximum of two games.
National League Championship Series: Giants versus Phillies:
Why the Giants could win:
The Giants pitching had the lowest ERA this season (3.36) and have three very strong starters, with a bit of an unknown in Madison Bumgarner—who pitched well in the NLDS clinching game. While their offense has some holes, they have scored enough runs this season to win their division and the NLDS, so their timely hitting has been superb. The Giants also have the fewest losses in the bullpen (15) this season, so if they get a lead late in the game, San Francisco has a great chance at a win.
Why the Phillies could win:
The Phillies have probably the best top three starters in the major leagues with how all three are pitching now. The Phillies have been battled tested the past couple of season, shut down the most potent offense in the National League, and have a definite home-field advantage (Tied for second in the NL with 52 wins). Philadelphia’s bullpen has been solid and their offense has no true holes, save for the nine-hole.
Who will win?
The Phillies will win this series in five games (4-1). Many writers are giving the Giants a better shot, but Halladay is more proven than Lincecum, Oswalt than Cain, and Hamels than Sanchez, so to give the Giants any of those games when you consider the offensive potentials of both teams (the Phil’s have an advantage at every position save catcher in my eye). The Giants will at least win one game, because I think they have a definite edge in game four, but beyond that, on paper I see no way the Giants take this series.
If you missed division series columns before or just want to review them, here are the AL predictions and here are the NL predictions.
ALDS Review:
Texas Rangers versus the Tampa Bay Rays:
New York Yankees versus the Minnesota Twins:
The Yankees looked dominant in the series, which I thought was a little surprising due to the struggles of the previous month. I do take pleasure knowing that I got the call right, even though Girardi shocked me with his bold moves of not play Joba and also not even carrying A.J. Burnett on the roster for the series. The Yanks looked great, able to win with solid starting pitching and getting the big hit when they needed too. Evidently, the Twins really cannot stop looking at the Yankees pinstripes, and apparently thought that wearing similar stripes (in game 2) would help get a win.
NLDS Review
Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds:
San Francisco and Atlanta:
Unfortunately for Bobby Cox and all the sentimental fans, I got this call perfect as well with a 3-1 series win for the Giants. San Francisco may not be able to hit much, but with their pitching in that series, the Giants got all the hits they needed. The Giants’ pitching looks like it may be able to standup to the Phillies and the offense has hit the Phillies well this season. The Giants came out with their first playoff wins in sometime and looked solid doing so.
Review of my picks:
I must say that I am amazed at my accuracy (or luck) when it came to picking the division series. I may not have been perfect (I had the Yankees losing one game instead of sweeping), but I did hit on all of my other points, so perhaps what is forthcoming you may want to consider (or my luck could fade, we will see).
Now I will look at the upcoming Championship Series, give you a reason why each team can win the series, and then give you my thoughts on the outcome.
American League Championship Series: Yankees versus Rangers:
Why the Yankees could win:
The Yankees have obviously looked dominant this postseason in their sweep of the Twins, but that does not mean all their problems are over. That said, the Yankees know what they will get out of Sabathia, and if Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes continue pitching at a level near as well as they did this past week, the Yankees have the ability to shut the Rangers down. The Yankees also have the uncanny ability to get the big hit and scratch in just enough wins to get the victory. Throw in the fact that Rivera has looked like his normal postseason self, and the Yankees look ripe to repeat as World Series participants.
Why the Rangers could win:
The Rangers actually have a sweet setup due to their series with the Rays, now having Lee matching up to pitch game three and a potential game seven, and I would not bet against Lee in the postseason versus the Yankees (see 2009 World Series). The Rangers have also been great at home, (51 wins) so if they prove that the Rays just have their number in Texas, the Rangers may pull off a series win. The pitching staff may be young, and the offense may have some holes, but the bullpen has been superb (3.38 ERA) this season. The Rangers have a chance at making their first World Series if their pitching does not make big mistakes.
Who will win?
This series is rough,
National League Championship Series: Giants versus Phillies:
Why the Giants could win:
The Giants pitching had the lowest ERA this season (3.36) and have three very strong starters, with a bit of an unknown in Madison Bumgarner—who pitched well in the NLDS clinching game. While their offense has some holes, they have scored enough runs this season to win their division and the NLDS, so their timely hitting has been superb. The Giants also have the fewest losses in the bullpen (15) this season, so if they get a lead late in the game, San Francisco has a great chance at a win.
Why the Phillies could win:
The Phillies have probably the best top three starters in the major leagues with how all three are pitching now. The Phillies have been battled tested the past couple of season, shut down the most potent offense in the National League, and have a definite home-field advantage (Tied for second in the NL with 52 wins). Philadelphia’s bullpen has been solid and their offense has no true holes, save for the nine-hole.
Who will win?
The Phillies will win this series in five games (4-1). Many writers are giving the Giants a better shot, but Halladay is more proven than Lincecum, Oswalt than Cain, and Hamels than Sanchez, so to give the Giants any of those games when you consider the offensive potentials of both teams (the Phil’s have an advantage at every position save catcher in my eye). The Giants will at least win one game, because I think they have a definite edge in game four, but beyond that, on paper I see no way the Giants take this series.
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