Zachary GirsbergerNFC Rundown: After Week 6
October 17th 2011 23:54
Category: No Category
We have reached about the third of the way mark in this year’s entertaining NFL season, and so running through the conferences to evaluate where each team is, where it is going, and some random thoughts along the way to bring it all together.
This column focuses on teams from the NFC, and is listed by division in no particular order. The AFC version will be debuting tomorrow.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (5-1)
The Lions have become America's sweetheart team this season and rightfully so. Matthew Stafford has played up to his draft status, the defensive line could be the best in the NFL, and with only this week’s loss to San Francisco, the Lions have an excellent shot to make the playoffs as the five seed, perhaps even a shot at the division title if Green Bay stumbles down the road.
While this week's game had a great deal of buildup, the defining storyline has been the scrum between coaches, which is a little overblown. The real problem with this game was Detroit's two-minute drill at the end. Stafford had no urgency and took a sack that wiped too much time off the clock. The Lions did not seem to have plan and on the final play, Titus Young dove on the lateral ending any chance of a miracle comeback.
Green Bay Packers (6-0)
Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. I was a doubter during last season and will cop the fact that I was wrong. Rodgers has elevated his game to the highest level. I think Tom Brady (and when healthy Peyton Manning) are still better passers, but Aaron Rodgers has the ability to get out of the pocket and make plays and he has learned his own value by learning how to slide rather than take a needless risk--the final part of his game I saw lacking.
The Packers are a beastly offense and make enough plays on defense, and have the ability to stop teams in key situations. While I think Finley has lost some of the trust of Rodgers, the passing game is still explosive and the tandem of Starks and Grant keeps teams honest. Green Bay should run away with the NFC North and could easily end up as the number one seed.
Chicago Bears (3-3)
How awesome is Devon Hester? While his development as a wide receiver may not be going as well as intended, he can have games like this week against the Vikings.
The Bears are an interesting team, they have a solid defense, awesome special teams, and the offense is Matt Forte and hit-or-miss players. Jay Cutler seems to be turning things around as long as he isn't getting drilled in the back and the Bears could make a run if they can be a little more consistent with the play of the wide receivers and Jay Cutler isn't on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
I think it is time to start Christian Ponder. McNabb has no accuracy and the defense and Adrian Peterson can only do so much. The Vikings have some solid pieces but the sum of their parts does not impress.
The Vikings need to develop some talent for next season, see what they have in Ponder, and draft some skill positions in next year’s draft. I cannot put this on coaching but just the ebb and flow of teams and the league, and I do not think many had high expectations coming off the disappointing result in last season.
Final thoughts on the NFC North: This is one of the better divisions in the NFL with two likely playoff teams and possibly a third if the NFC South and East stay mired in mediocrity. I like the Packers to finish with at most three losses if they stay relatively healthy.
NFC East
Washington Redskins (3-2)
You know that high that the Redskins were on as they entered the bye week? Say hello to Sexy Rexy at its worst. I saw a lot of the Bears 2006 season, Rex Grossman can win you a game, and the next week he can throw four interceptions. Beck is not an improvement, but could be more consistent, which is probably for the best with the relative skills on this team.
The Redskins have already hit their high point of this season and only will get worse. The NFC East looks competitive yet again but not nearly as strong as the past couple seasons. Because the NFC East is weakening, I can see Washington winning just enough games to move themselves out of solid draft position but not enough to earn a berth in the playoffs.
New York Giants (4-2)
Eli Manning has erased some of his woes from the earlier part of this season and the Giants look solid again this season. Mario Manningham looks to be playing as well as expected and the emergence of Cruz gives Eli another weapon.
The key to the Giants though is their defense, more specifically their health. I don't think their secondary is great but if the front four can force some pressure, the Giants have the ability to cover up some of their deficiencies. If the Giants can keep playing like they did against the Bills, they are in the best position to win this division.
Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
The Cowboys almost knocked off the vaunted Patriots, thanks mostly to their new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Before this game, a great deal was made of his past successes against the Patriots and rightfully so.
I think the weakness in the Cowboys is in their run game, more specifically a lack of a consistent run game. They have talented running backs but without the ability to run out the clock, Dallas's defense will be hard pressed to keep up what they are doing. The Cowboys have the talent to make a run if they can just play at their peak regularly.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)
Does anything new need to be written about these Eagles? I have nothing to add to this dream team, but I have no idea what they will do. I am 0-6 in my pick 'em league with this team, and I do not think I am alone with this.
The Eagles have talent, and for stretches, it comes together and they look amazing. Unfortunately, like in the second half of this Redskins game, bounced balls will go against them, injuries to Vick will devastate this team, and they will have offensive lulls that will put the pressure on their defense. The Eagles can win this division, but finishing in last is also within the realm of possibility.
Final thoughts on the NFC East: This division is not as strong as it has been in past years, but it is just as close of a race. 9-7 could take the East, and any of the four teams have the ability (although the Redskins are highly unlikely to do so) to win this division, but I favor the Giants so far.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the year in my mind, not because of record and not in spite of the kerfuffle this week, but because he has managed to turn Alex Smith into not only a passable starting quarterback, but an above-average starter. I do not think anyone would have predicted San Francisco would be playing this well, but their resume speaks for itself. Wins against the Lions, Bengals, Bucs, and Eagles are impressive, they are 1-0 in their division, and their only loss came in overtime against to the Cowboys.
I am struggling to find a hole in this team. They are solid on offense with Smith finally playing as well as he ever has, Gore playing very well, and the receiving options looking strong before injury. The defense has a great front seven and the secondary is playing well enough to keep the team in games. The 49ers are in the pole position to win the terrible NFC West, but could stumble if they fall back to earth. You do not want to peak too early, but the 49ers could keep this up with five games left in their division.
St. Louis Rams (0-5)
The Rams are the most disappointing team as far as I am concerned, but the final nine games and the Lloyd trade give some hope to Rams fans. The Rams need improvement in their secondary still, but they will have to stick with what they have in all likelihood.
The Rams benefit by playing in a bad division and have a favorable end of season schedule. That said, they are winless thus far and play a tough game next week against the Cowboys. I seriously doubt a playoff run because of this rough start and the 49ers looking far above the rest of the West, but the possibility exists of a weak berth.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
I do not have much to say about the Seahawks. They are a middling team in a bad division and do nothing exceptionally well. They will win some games that perhaps they should not (like against the Giants) thanks to some player potential and luck, but by no means is this team a good one.
The Seahawks need a lot to be good in the future. Tavaris and Clipboard Jesus are not franchise quarterbacks and they need to improve on both lines to become relevant this season and in the future.
Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Kevin Kolb looks average. He does not seem to have exceptional accuracy, a great arm, or the ability to make great plays outside the pocket. He could become a strong starter, but right now he is not. That said, the Cardinals are stuck with Kolb thanks to the extension they gave him before the season began.
The Cardinals need better cornerbacks, but when you trade away your number one corner before the season, it is to be expected to have a drop off. The defense has some strong building blocks and the offense has Fitzgerald and some other decent pieces (it is hard to rate Wells highly due to injury risk) so the Cardinals are not far off from being a decent team, but until they develop more, I expect a fourth place finish for this team.
Final thoughts on the NFC West: This division is bad and there is not much else to say. The 49ers can run away with this division by simply playing .500 ball the rest of the way.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (4-2)
The Saints had a rough game against Tampa this past week, but part of that has to be chalked up to losing their head coach to injury. Brees did play very well but his interceptions hindered their efforts (and won me my fantasy league) but this was still a close game that probably does not reveal much about the Saints.
The Saints offense among the best in the league, and with a decent rushing attack could surpass the Packers for best in the conference. Finding a balance among the three-headed attack of Ingram, Thomas, and Sproles could make New Orleans nearly unstoppable. The defense needs to generate more turnovers and could use some improvements all around, but the Saints playoff hopes look strong. The Saints look to win this division by outplaying the Bucs the rest of the way, and if they fail to do that, they still have a solid shot at a wild card berth.
Carolina Panthers (1-5)
The Panthers are a hard team to predict because of injuries to their defense, but they have played a tight game every week until their game against the Falcons. Cam Newton looks worthy of his number one pick and could be a taller version of Vick with possibly more upside--as scary as that sounds.
The Panthers weakness is their defense, but part of that is due to injury. Ron Rivera is a solid defensive coordinator who did wonders with San Diego and Chicago, and could have this team poised to compete in future seasons. I doubt a playoff berth this season, because of close losses in early weeks, but look for the Panthers to be strong every week.
Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
The Falcons have not played up to expectations yet this season, but still have a chance at the playoffs. Matt Ryan looks strong yet again, and the offense seems to be figuring out their kinks. The Falcons won an impressive game against the Panthers, but they need to win more on the road.
The weakest part of the Falcons is consistency overall. Their defense has lulls that allows opponents to score too easily and the offense needs to find a balance until the Atlanta receivers are playing at the top of their game. The Falcons have a shot at postseason play, and need to win within their division to do so.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
The Bucs are a very inconsistent team because of their inexperience at key positions, but are still a good team. They can win against the best of teams when they play well, but can also have debacles like in San Francisco. Freeman looked shaky early in the season but played a very strong game against the Saints.
I like the Bucs. They play good defense, have a smash mouth running attack, and are set at quarterback. They have a really good chance at making the playoffs if they stick to their strengths and win some games on the road. They have a challenge this week in England, but after their bye will be the telling games for the Bucs.
Final Thoughts on the NFC South: I think the South could have two playoff berths and right now I think it is still a three team battle. Carolina is a true wild card though, and in-division record could be the determining factor for who wins the division.
This column focuses on teams from the NFC, and is listed by division in no particular order. The AFC version will be debuting tomorrow.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (5-1)
The Lions have become America's sweetheart team this season and rightfully so. Matthew Stafford has played up to his draft status, the defensive line could be the best in the NFL, and with only this week’s loss to San Francisco, the Lions have an excellent shot to make the playoffs as the five seed, perhaps even a shot at the division title if Green Bay stumbles down the road.
While this week's game had a great deal of buildup, the defining storyline has been the scrum between coaches, which is a little overblown. The real problem with this game was Detroit's two-minute drill at the end. Stafford had no urgency and took a sack that wiped too much time off the clock. The Lions did not seem to have plan and on the final play, Titus Young dove on the lateral ending any chance of a miracle comeback.
Green Bay Packers (6-0)
Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. I was a doubter during last season and will cop the fact that I was wrong. Rodgers has elevated his game to the highest level. I think Tom Brady (and when healthy Peyton Manning) are still better passers, but Aaron Rodgers has the ability to get out of the pocket and make plays and he has learned his own value by learning how to slide rather than take a needless risk--the final part of his game I saw lacking.
The Packers are a beastly offense and make enough plays on defense, and have the ability to stop teams in key situations. While I think Finley has lost some of the trust of Rodgers, the passing game is still explosive and the tandem of Starks and Grant keeps teams honest. Green Bay should run away with the NFC North and could easily end up as the number one seed.
Chicago Bears (3-3)
How awesome is Devon Hester? While his development as a wide receiver may not be going as well as intended, he can have games like this week against the Vikings.
The Bears are an interesting team, they have a solid defense, awesome special teams, and the offense is Matt Forte and hit-or-miss players. Jay Cutler seems to be turning things around as long as he isn't getting drilled in the back and the Bears could make a run if they can be a little more consistent with the play of the wide receivers and Jay Cutler isn't on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
I think it is time to start Christian Ponder. McNabb has no accuracy and the defense and Adrian Peterson can only do so much. The Vikings have some solid pieces but the sum of their parts does not impress.
The Vikings need to develop some talent for next season, see what they have in Ponder, and draft some skill positions in next year’s draft. I cannot put this on coaching but just the ebb and flow of teams and the league, and I do not think many had high expectations coming off the disappointing result in last season.
Final thoughts on the NFC North: This is one of the better divisions in the NFL with two likely playoff teams and possibly a third if the NFC South and East stay mired in mediocrity. I like the Packers to finish with at most three losses if they stay relatively healthy.
NFC East
Washington Redskins (3-2)
You know that high that the Redskins were on as they entered the bye week? Say hello to Sexy Rexy at its worst. I saw a lot of the Bears 2006 season, Rex Grossman can win you a game, and the next week he can throw four interceptions. Beck is not an improvement, but could be more consistent, which is probably for the best with the relative skills on this team.
The Redskins have already hit their high point of this season and only will get worse. The NFC East looks competitive yet again but not nearly as strong as the past couple seasons. Because the NFC East is weakening, I can see Washington winning just enough games to move themselves out of solid draft position but not enough to earn a berth in the playoffs.
New York Giants (4-2)
Eli Manning has erased some of his woes from the earlier part of this season and the Giants look solid again this season. Mario Manningham looks to be playing as well as expected and the emergence of Cruz gives Eli another weapon.
The key to the Giants though is their defense, more specifically their health. I don't think their secondary is great but if the front four can force some pressure, the Giants have the ability to cover up some of their deficiencies. If the Giants can keep playing like they did against the Bills, they are in the best position to win this division.
Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
The Cowboys almost knocked off the vaunted Patriots, thanks mostly to their new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Before this game, a great deal was made of his past successes against the Patriots and rightfully so.
I think the weakness in the Cowboys is in their run game, more specifically a lack of a consistent run game. They have talented running backs but without the ability to run out the clock, Dallas's defense will be hard pressed to keep up what they are doing. The Cowboys have the talent to make a run if they can just play at their peak regularly.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)
Does anything new need to be written about these Eagles? I have nothing to add to this dream team, but I have no idea what they will do. I am 0-6 in my pick 'em league with this team, and I do not think I am alone with this.
The Eagles have talent, and for stretches, it comes together and they look amazing. Unfortunately, like in the second half of this Redskins game, bounced balls will go against them, injuries to Vick will devastate this team, and they will have offensive lulls that will put the pressure on their defense. The Eagles can win this division, but finishing in last is also within the realm of possibility.
Final thoughts on the NFC East: This division is not as strong as it has been in past years, but it is just as close of a race. 9-7 could take the East, and any of the four teams have the ability (although the Redskins are highly unlikely to do so) to win this division, but I favor the Giants so far.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the year in my mind, not because of record and not in spite of the kerfuffle this week, but because he has managed to turn Alex Smith into not only a passable starting quarterback, but an above-average starter. I do not think anyone would have predicted San Francisco would be playing this well, but their resume speaks for itself. Wins against the Lions, Bengals, Bucs, and Eagles are impressive, they are 1-0 in their division, and their only loss came in overtime against to the Cowboys.
I am struggling to find a hole in this team. They are solid on offense with Smith finally playing as well as he ever has, Gore playing very well, and the receiving options looking strong before injury. The defense has a great front seven and the secondary is playing well enough to keep the team in games. The 49ers are in the pole position to win the terrible NFC West, but could stumble if they fall back to earth. You do not want to peak too early, but the 49ers could keep this up with five games left in their division.
St. Louis Rams (0-5)
The Rams are the most disappointing team as far as I am concerned, but the final nine games and the Lloyd trade give some hope to Rams fans. The Rams need improvement in their secondary still, but they will have to stick with what they have in all likelihood.
The Rams benefit by playing in a bad division and have a favorable end of season schedule. That said, they are winless thus far and play a tough game next week against the Cowboys. I seriously doubt a playoff run because of this rough start and the 49ers looking far above the rest of the West, but the possibility exists of a weak berth.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
I do not have much to say about the Seahawks. They are a middling team in a bad division and do nothing exceptionally well. They will win some games that perhaps they should not (like against the Giants) thanks to some player potential and luck, but by no means is this team a good one.
The Seahawks need a lot to be good in the future. Tavaris and Clipboard Jesus are not franchise quarterbacks and they need to improve on both lines to become relevant this season and in the future.
Arizona Cardinals (1-4)
Kevin Kolb looks average. He does not seem to have exceptional accuracy, a great arm, or the ability to make great plays outside the pocket. He could become a strong starter, but right now he is not. That said, the Cardinals are stuck with Kolb thanks to the extension they gave him before the season began.
The Cardinals need better cornerbacks, but when you trade away your number one corner before the season, it is to be expected to have a drop off. The defense has some strong building blocks and the offense has Fitzgerald and some other decent pieces (it is hard to rate Wells highly due to injury risk) so the Cardinals are not far off from being a decent team, but until they develop more, I expect a fourth place finish for this team.
Final thoughts on the NFC West: This division is bad and there is not much else to say. The 49ers can run away with this division by simply playing .500 ball the rest of the way.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (4-2)
The Saints had a rough game against Tampa this past week, but part of that has to be chalked up to losing their head coach to injury. Brees did play very well but his interceptions hindered their efforts (and won me my fantasy league) but this was still a close game that probably does not reveal much about the Saints.
The Saints offense among the best in the league, and with a decent rushing attack could surpass the Packers for best in the conference. Finding a balance among the three-headed attack of Ingram, Thomas, and Sproles could make New Orleans nearly unstoppable. The defense needs to generate more turnovers and could use some improvements all around, but the Saints playoff hopes look strong. The Saints look to win this division by outplaying the Bucs the rest of the way, and if they fail to do that, they still have a solid shot at a wild card berth.
Carolina Panthers (1-5)
The Panthers are a hard team to predict because of injuries to their defense, but they have played a tight game every week until their game against the Falcons. Cam Newton looks worthy of his number one pick and could be a taller version of Vick with possibly more upside--as scary as that sounds.
The Panthers weakness is their defense, but part of that is due to injury. Ron Rivera is a solid defensive coordinator who did wonders with San Diego and Chicago, and could have this team poised to compete in future seasons. I doubt a playoff berth this season, because of close losses in early weeks, but look for the Panthers to be strong every week.
Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
The Falcons have not played up to expectations yet this season, but still have a chance at the playoffs. Matt Ryan looks strong yet again, and the offense seems to be figuring out their kinks. The Falcons won an impressive game against the Panthers, but they need to win more on the road.
The weakest part of the Falcons is consistency overall. Their defense has lulls that allows opponents to score too easily and the offense needs to find a balance until the Atlanta receivers are playing at the top of their game. The Falcons have a shot at postseason play, and need to win within their division to do so.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
The Bucs are a very inconsistent team because of their inexperience at key positions, but are still a good team. They can win against the best of teams when they play well, but can also have debacles like in San Francisco. Freeman looked shaky early in the season but played a very strong game against the Saints.
I like the Bucs. They play good defense, have a smash mouth running attack, and are set at quarterback. They have a really good chance at making the playoffs if they stick to their strengths and win some games on the road. They have a challenge this week in England, but after their bye will be the telling games for the Bucs.
Final Thoughts on the NFC South: I think the South could have two playoff berths and right now I think it is still a three team battle. Carolina is a true wild card though, and in-division record could be the determining factor for who wins the division.
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