damianfirst test match up for grabs
October 12th 2008 14:39
For most of this first test, the Aussies have seemed to have things fairly well in hand, despite the best efforts of Zaheer Khan and Harbajan Singh. Indeed, 263 runs in front and with 5 wickets still remaining, most money would still be on the Australians, but nonetheless, there is a lot for Ricky Ponting to think about overnight and as he stares into his weetbix in the morning (he wouldn't want to stare too long, for fear Brett lee may consider them up for grabs).
Considering the state of the wicket, Ponting in the past would have been fairly confident in the ability of his side to bowl out any opposition side from this position. This time however, he does not have the luxury of a Shane Warne or Glenn Mcgrath to whom he can throw the ball with almost complete certainty that it will bring about a wicket.
As it stands, Ponting is probably not confident that he has quite enough runs on the board to put an Indian victory completely beyond doubt. Being perhaps a somewhat defensively minded captain, he would probably be looking for about 300 - 320 as a total for the Indian batsmen to chase in 90 overs. With Haddin and Watson established and capable batsmen in White, Lee and Johnson still to come, getting to that mark shouldn't be a problem. The trouble is, the more time they take getting there, the less time they have to take the 10 wickets required for victory.
The solution seems simple, get out there for five overs tomorrow morning and throw the bat for 8 overs or 50 runs, whichever comes first. Then, allowing two overs off for the change of innings, Ponting would still be left with over two and a half sessions in which to take 10 wickets on a rapidly deteriorating track.
This is great if it comes off, but I think Ponting will have two primary concerns in relation to this plan. The first is the heightened potential for a batting collapse that sees the Aussies with a lead of less than 300 on the board. The second is Virender Sehwag. Ponting knows that he is the one man who could make a target of around 300 achievable for India, given the time constraints. Even if he gets them off to a flyer and gets 50 or 60 in quick time, the likes of Tendulkar and Laxman will then be able to bat with a bit more freedom and not feel like they have to either bat in a purely defensive mode or take excessive risk.
For Ponting, it is an interesting dilemma, and one which will reveal exactly how much faith he has in his current bowling lineup. The possibility that he may not have Stuart Clark at his disposal will undoubtedly weigh on his mind. Johnson and Lee will have to work much harder to extract assistance from the pitch than they did in the first innings, and Cameron White simply doesn't have the penetration of a Warne or MacGill. Given this, if Australia do bowl India out, it could be Watson and M. Clarke who turn out to be the most dangerous bowlers. Watson hits the pitch harder than any of the other seamers, and as such, could pose problems for the batsmen with balls keeping low. Clarke will also be looking for bowled and lbw dismissals, as he tends to skid the ball on more than White who bowls with a lot of topspin.
From their current position, Australia should not lose this match. If India were to get up, it would be a victory to rank alongside the highs of the 2001 series, but it is hard to see that happening. The real question is whether Ponting can allow India a sufficient glimpse of the carrot to get them in to a position for him to then apply the stick.
Considering the state of the wicket, Ponting in the past would have been fairly confident in the ability of his side to bowl out any opposition side from this position. This time however, he does not have the luxury of a Shane Warne or Glenn Mcgrath to whom he can throw the ball with almost complete certainty that it will bring about a wicket.
As it stands, Ponting is probably not confident that he has quite enough runs on the board to put an Indian victory completely beyond doubt. Being perhaps a somewhat defensively minded captain, he would probably be looking for about 300 - 320 as a total for the Indian batsmen to chase in 90 overs. With Haddin and Watson established and capable batsmen in White, Lee and Johnson still to come, getting to that mark shouldn't be a problem. The trouble is, the more time they take getting there, the less time they have to take the 10 wickets required for victory.
The solution seems simple, get out there for five overs tomorrow morning and throw the bat for 8 overs or 50 runs, whichever comes first. Then, allowing two overs off for the change of innings, Ponting would still be left with over two and a half sessions in which to take 10 wickets on a rapidly deteriorating track.
This is great if it comes off, but I think Ponting will have two primary concerns in relation to this plan. The first is the heightened potential for a batting collapse that sees the Aussies with a lead of less than 300 on the board. The second is Virender Sehwag. Ponting knows that he is the one man who could make a target of around 300 achievable for India, given the time constraints. Even if he gets them off to a flyer and gets 50 or 60 in quick time, the likes of Tendulkar and Laxman will then be able to bat with a bit more freedom and not feel like they have to either bat in a purely defensive mode or take excessive risk.
For Ponting, it is an interesting dilemma, and one which will reveal exactly how much faith he has in his current bowling lineup. The possibility that he may not have Stuart Clark at his disposal will undoubtedly weigh on his mind. Johnson and Lee will have to work much harder to extract assistance from the pitch than they did in the first innings, and Cameron White simply doesn't have the penetration of a Warne or MacGill. Given this, if Australia do bowl India out, it could be Watson and M. Clarke who turn out to be the most dangerous bowlers. Watson hits the pitch harder than any of the other seamers, and as such, could pose problems for the batsmen with balls keeping low. Clarke will also be looking for bowled and lbw dismissals, as he tends to skid the ball on more than White who bowls with a lot of topspin.
From their current position, Australia should not lose this match. If India were to get up, it would be a victory to rank alongside the highs of the 2001 series, but it is hard to see that happening. The real question is whether Ponting can allow India a sufficient glimpse of the carrot to get them in to a position for him to then apply the stick.
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Comment by David Edwards
Sporting Mind
Pontine doesn't like to give glimpses of the carrot anymore. I think he's still got that decision to bowl at Edgbaston in 2005 at the back of his mind - the call that led to the Ashes loss that year.