damianCan Buddy stop the cats?
September 9th 2008 07:07
There is an old saying in sport that anything can happen on the day, and of course you can only take things one match at a time. Notwithstanding that, anyone who thinks that a team other than Geelong or Hawthorn will play in the AFL grand final this year should be locked up, and the key fed to a rather menacing-looking dog in my street called George.
Yes, Collingwood have beaten the cats this year, and Hawthorn have lost to teams not even in the finals. But this is the business end of the season when the best players have everything to play for, and the simple fact is that Geelong and Hawthorn are better than any of the other teams still alive in the finals series.
Judging by the result when the two teams met during the season, the Hawks will have their work cut out even getting near the ball on grand final day, considering their failure on this occasion to dispose of an understrength Cats lineup. However, there is one joker in the pack for Hawthorn:
'Buddy' Franklin.
Much has been made of his ability and of his achievements this season, and some people would almost have you believe he is the reincarnation of God, Don Bradman, or at the very least, the prophet Mohammed. I don't want to overstate his abilities to quite such an extent, but the fact remains that if he is 'on', there are very few players in the league who can match his combination of size, skill and athleticism.
He is not the strongest forward in the league and there would probably be a number of options for Geelong if it was simply a case of a one-on-one marking contest. However, once you get him on the lead, that is where he is at his most unstoppable. One particular lead from the match against the Western Bulldogs on Friday sticks out in my mind: Frankin led out to the 50-metre arc, closely shadowed by his defender. Then, when the ball was about ten metres away, he propped and just used his body to nudge his opponent away from the ball before taking a simple, uncontested mark.
Now against Geelong, who have a much deeper spread of talent than the bulldogs, it may not be a case of Franklin tearing the game apart as he has done on a number of occasions recently, but more that the cats may devote too many resources to stopping him, and forget someone like a Rioli or Osborne. The Cats' coaching staff will undoubtedly be aiming to prevent this possibility, but in the heat of the game, if Buddy is threatening to run riot, the natural reaction as a defender in a big game will be to try to shut him down.
Conversely, the question for the Hawks is just how will they stop Abblett. And even if they do this, there are probably another five or six players for the cats who can almost singlehandedly win them a game. The Hawks have relied heavily on players such as Croad and Campbell Brown containing key opposition players, freeing up Guerra, Bateman and co. to play more of an attacking role through half-back and the midfield. The Cats, however, have such a long list of players who can impose themselves on the game, that Hawthorn will need their entire backline to play out of its skin to contain them. Add to this the fact that players like Mitchell and Hodge have largely been free to do as they please in recent times. With Abblett, Bartel, Ling, Johnson, etc. in the mix, all of a sudden they must be more defensively minded as well.
So on balance, the probability points to a second consecutive Geelong flag, but as Bruce Wayne just never seems to learn, you discount the joker at your peril.
Yes, Collingwood have beaten the cats this year, and Hawthorn have lost to teams not even in the finals. But this is the business end of the season when the best players have everything to play for, and the simple fact is that Geelong and Hawthorn are better than any of the other teams still alive in the finals series.
Judging by the result when the two teams met during the season, the Hawks will have their work cut out even getting near the ball on grand final day, considering their failure on this occasion to dispose of an understrength Cats lineup. However, there is one joker in the pack for Hawthorn:
'Buddy' Franklin.
Much has been made of his ability and of his achievements this season, and some people would almost have you believe he is the reincarnation of God, Don Bradman, or at the very least, the prophet Mohammed. I don't want to overstate his abilities to quite such an extent, but the fact remains that if he is 'on', there are very few players in the league who can match his combination of size, skill and athleticism.
He is not the strongest forward in the league and there would probably be a number of options for Geelong if it was simply a case of a one-on-one marking contest. However, once you get him on the lead, that is where he is at his most unstoppable. One particular lead from the match against the Western Bulldogs on Friday sticks out in my mind: Frankin led out to the 50-metre arc, closely shadowed by his defender. Then, when the ball was about ten metres away, he propped and just used his body to nudge his opponent away from the ball before taking a simple, uncontested mark.
Now against Geelong, who have a much deeper spread of talent than the bulldogs, it may not be a case of Franklin tearing the game apart as he has done on a number of occasions recently, but more that the cats may devote too many resources to stopping him, and forget someone like a Rioli or Osborne. The Cats' coaching staff will undoubtedly be aiming to prevent this possibility, but in the heat of the game, if Buddy is threatening to run riot, the natural reaction as a defender in a big game will be to try to shut him down.
Conversely, the question for the Hawks is just how will they stop Abblett. And even if they do this, there are probably another five or six players for the cats who can almost singlehandedly win them a game. The Hawks have relied heavily on players such as Croad and Campbell Brown containing key opposition players, freeing up Guerra, Bateman and co. to play more of an attacking role through half-back and the midfield. The Cats, however, have such a long list of players who can impose themselves on the game, that Hawthorn will need their entire backline to play out of its skin to contain them. Add to this the fact that players like Mitchell and Hodge have largely been free to do as they please in recent times. With Abblett, Bartel, Ling, Johnson, etc. in the mix, all of a sudden they must be more defensively minded as well.
So on balance, the probability points to a second consecutive Geelong flag, but as Bruce Wayne just never seems to learn, you discount the joker at your peril.
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