Zachary GirsbergerAFC Review: Week 5
October 13th 2010 06:10
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With about one-third of the NFL season completed, teams have established their identities, panic has set in for some teams, and other teams are enjoying unexpected success. This column will look at each team in the AFC (NFC review forthcoming), division by division, to see how each team has fared and what we can expect from each team.
North Division:
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won the division last year behind their running game and a conservative playbook that could expand when needed. This year the Bengals do not have the luxury of low expectations as they did last year, but still have a chance to save their season (currently at 2-3) if they can clamp down on defense and T. Ocho continues to produce week after week. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they play only three teams currently under .500 (Buffalo, Cleveland, and San Diego) so the schedule does not bode well. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. With Baltimore and Pittsburgh looking strong, and the AFC South producing better than expected, both the Division and Wild Card do not look possible unless Cincinnati gets hot.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are going to have another losing season (1-4 right now) barring a miraculous turn around by Holmgren. I do not think anyone had high hopes for this season, but Cleveland will not have many more chances for wins with only two games versus teams under .500 (Buffalo and Carolina) and a very streaky offense. Playoff Forecast: Nonexistent. If the Browns finish with five wins, it will be surprising.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (4-1) leads the North right now by a half a game over the Steelers and have played well in all facets of the game. The addition of Boldin to the offense and the continued leadership of Ray Lewis on defense have both been key to the success of the team, and with Flacco now in his third season as a starter, Baltimore has a bright season ahead. Playoff Forecast: High probability. Baltimore has played at a high level all season and with a favorable schedule ahead, the Ravens should be an eleven-win team at worst.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (3-1) get Big Ben back this week and so the return of their two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback means their successful season can only get better. The Steelers have been great on defense (shocker, eh?) and have produced with backups this season. Playoff Forecast: High. So far, the Steelers have played well in spite of circumstance, so the return of Big Ben should propel them to the playoffs.
West Division
Denver Broncos: The Broncos have a beast of a passing game, but have allowed too many points late in games, while injuries have decimated the running game, leading to their record (2-3). Orton has proven himself as a capable leader and if the defense gets straightened out Denver has a chance to build a solid record. Playoff Forecast: Fair chance. Denver may be able to put up points, but stopping the other team from scoring is essential to win. Denver has the luxury of playing in the weakest division in the AFC and has yet to play a game within it. Depending on McDaniels and his staff’s ability to turn the season around, the Broncos have a shot at the playoffs.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers came in the preseason favorite for the AFC west, yet have stumbled (2-3) due to special teams. Rivers is leading the most potent offense in the league, yet in their three losses, San Diego has allowed at least one special teams touchdown. Playoff Forecast: Good chance. Call me a homer, call me biased, but the Chargers have the offense to score some points and a defense that will not cost too many games. The Chargers have been historically weak early and finish strong. In the West, any of the teams has a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs came into the season expected to battle Oakland for third in the West, yet with new playmaking rookies and strong development in their youth, plus a fairly weak early schedule (wins over the Chargers, Browns, 49ers) have led to the Chiefs being on top of the West. The Chiefs have been fairly surprising, as they only won four games last season, yet have a chance to stay on top as long as Cassel does not cost Kansas City too many games. Playoff Forecast: Good chance. Winning the West may not take more than nine games and with five more games within the division as well as three more games versus the NFC west, the Chiefs have a solid path to the AFC West title.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have already defied logic by having more success with Bruce Gradkowski than Jason Campbell, despite being almost ten percent less accurate (52% compared to 61.4%). The Raiders do have a solid run game with McFadden and Bush, and so if they can avoid the injury bug, the Raiders have a shot of a non-losing season. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. While the Raiders do have the benefit of playing in a relatively weak division, they have a question at the most important position in a passing league, and to be honest, it is the Raiders we are discussing.
Southern Division
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have stumbled out of the out of the gate, yet still have Peyton Manning at the helm of the offense. The AFC South has been surprisingly equal, with each team having the same record (3-2), yet the Colts are perennial favorites by default even with a defense that has questions. Playoff Forecast: Good shot. The Colts may be tied for first, yet they have the experience and leadership to take make a run at get at least a wild card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are yet another surprise team in the NFL, and a lucky one at that. This team does not have a great offense, nor defense, nor special teams (save for Scobee who has done brilliantly this season) but are a solid team, with luck (outscored by thirty points so far) and off to a good start (3-2) to the season. Playoff Forecast: Low Chance. While the Jaguars are a solid team, this AFC is not going to allow an average team to reach a playoff berth, and the AFC south is the most competitive division, top to bottom, thus far.
Houston Texans: The Texans opened the season with a bang, taking out the Colts, but have not been steady all season. With losses to the Cowboys and Giants, yet wins over Indy and Washington, this Houston team looks like a streaky team at 3-2, which will need to hit teams at the right time in order to be successful. Playoff Forecast: Average chance. The Texans need to make the playoffs if they want to make a blip on the Texas sporting radar, and it may be the right year to do so with the Cowboys in last place and Texas not playing for a BCS championship. That said, I am not a believer in the Texans yet, because they need to maintain a level of consistency to win and make the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans are a puzzling team, led by Jeff Fisher’s coaching. With a fairly young defense, Fisher has engineered a team that scores just enough points to win, and allow just enough points to have a chance to win, but at 3-2 and alternating wins and losses thus far does not translate into success. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. This Titans team may be able to hang with the big boys (losing to Pittsburgh by a score) and able to destroy lesser teams (Oakland and Dallas) but without playmakers on offense beyond Chris Johnson, an average season is in store for Tennessee.
Eastern Division
Buffalo Bills: “And with the first pick of the NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select…” The Bills this season are the only winless team left in the AFC (0-5) with maybe two winnable games (Cleveland and Detroit, both at home) where the Bills have a shot at getting a win. The offense has not produced, and the defense has allowed the most points in the NFL with 161 points already surrendered. Playoff Forecast: Nonexistent. The Bills have no chance at a playoff berth, because of their division, their conference, and their team. Maybe in 2012.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are a hard team to evaluate, because they have beaten two losing teams (Minnesota and Buffalo) and lost to two winning teams (Pats and Jets) leading to their 2-2 record. The Dolphins won by slim margins, leading me to believe that luck and timing had a hand in their wins, so the Dolphins are an average team at best, with a fluid identity. Playoff Forecast: Very Low. I was tempted to put none here, with the division crown essentially a two-horse race between New York and New England, but those two teams both have a select group of players that could falter later in the season, leading to losses. Only if the Jets and Pats begin to struggle will Miami make the playoffs.
New York Jets: The loudest team in the NFL, a sexy pick for the Super Bowl, and a team that has played very well this season save for the opener—the Jets are perhaps the most written about team in history. The media loves the Jets and the Jets love the media, so until the Jets start to lose regularly, expect to be sick of them like most of America is. That said, the Jets have looked solid this year and have a core to win. Playoff Forecast: High chance. The Jets are a team that has a solid defense, a new-look running game, and a developing passing game, which translates to wins on the football field. The Jets will make the playoffs, but whether they win, there lies in the hands of Mark Sanchez.
New England Patriots: This may be the end of New England, as we know it, with the core of the three rings and the undefeated regular season slowly breaking up. Brady is still a top-flight quarterback, and the offense can score points with anyone, but the defense is young and may wither as the season progresses. Playoff Forecast: High Chance. Even with the loss of Faulk and trade of Moss, New England still has enough offense to outscore most teams, so if the defense holds up the team will succeed.
Playoff Seeding:
Now that you know what I think of the teams, here is how I have the playoffs set right now.
North Crown: Steelers
West Crown: Chargers
South Crown: Colts
East Crown: Jets
Wild Cards: Patriots and Ravens
Check later for my NFC review and after Week 10 and Week 15 for new rundowns of both conferences.
North Division:
Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won the division last year behind their running game and a conservative playbook that could expand when needed. This year the Bengals do not have the luxury of low expectations as they did last year, but still have a chance to save their season (currently at 2-3) if they can clamp down on defense and T. Ocho continues to produce week after week. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they play only three teams currently under .500 (Buffalo, Cleveland, and San Diego) so the schedule does not bode well. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. With Baltimore and Pittsburgh looking strong, and the AFC South producing better than expected, both the Division and Wild Card do not look possible unless Cincinnati gets hot.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are going to have another losing season (1-4 right now) barring a miraculous turn around by Holmgren. I do not think anyone had high hopes for this season, but Cleveland will not have many more chances for wins with only two games versus teams under .500 (Buffalo and Carolina) and a very streaky offense. Playoff Forecast: Nonexistent. If the Browns finish with five wins, it will be surprising.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (4-1) leads the North right now by a half a game over the Steelers and have played well in all facets of the game. The addition of Boldin to the offense and the continued leadership of Ray Lewis on defense have both been key to the success of the team, and with Flacco now in his third season as a starter, Baltimore has a bright season ahead. Playoff Forecast: High probability. Baltimore has played at a high level all season and with a favorable schedule ahead, the Ravens should be an eleven-win team at worst.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (3-1) get Big Ben back this week and so the return of their two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback means their successful season can only get better. The Steelers have been great on defense (shocker, eh?) and have produced with backups this season. Playoff Forecast: High. So far, the Steelers have played well in spite of circumstance, so the return of Big Ben should propel them to the playoffs.
West Division
Denver Broncos: The Broncos have a beast of a passing game, but have allowed too many points late in games, while injuries have decimated the running game, leading to their record (2-3). Orton has proven himself as a capable leader and if the defense gets straightened out Denver has a chance to build a solid record. Playoff Forecast: Fair chance. Denver may be able to put up points, but stopping the other team from scoring is essential to win. Denver has the luxury of playing in the weakest division in the AFC and has yet to play a game within it. Depending on McDaniels and his staff’s ability to turn the season around, the Broncos have a shot at the playoffs.
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers came in the preseason favorite for the AFC west, yet have stumbled (2-3) due to special teams. Rivers is leading the most potent offense in the league, yet in their three losses, San Diego has allowed at least one special teams touchdown. Playoff Forecast: Good chance. Call me a homer, call me biased, but the Chargers have the offense to score some points and a defense that will not cost too many games. The Chargers have been historically weak early and finish strong. In the West, any of the teams has a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs came into the season expected to battle Oakland for third in the West, yet with new playmaking rookies and strong development in their youth, plus a fairly weak early schedule (wins over the Chargers, Browns, 49ers) have led to the Chiefs being on top of the West. The Chiefs have been fairly surprising, as they only won four games last season, yet have a chance to stay on top as long as Cassel does not cost Kansas City too many games. Playoff Forecast: Good chance. Winning the West may not take more than nine games and with five more games within the division as well as three more games versus the NFC west, the Chiefs have a solid path to the AFC West title.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have already defied logic by having more success with Bruce Gradkowski than Jason Campbell, despite being almost ten percent less accurate (52% compared to 61.4%). The Raiders do have a solid run game with McFadden and Bush, and so if they can avoid the injury bug, the Raiders have a shot of a non-losing season. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. While the Raiders do have the benefit of playing in a relatively weak division, they have a question at the most important position in a passing league, and to be honest, it is the Raiders we are discussing.
Southern Division
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have stumbled out of the out of the gate, yet still have Peyton Manning at the helm of the offense. The AFC South has been surprisingly equal, with each team having the same record (3-2), yet the Colts are perennial favorites by default even with a defense that has questions. Playoff Forecast: Good shot. The Colts may be tied for first, yet they have the experience and leadership to take make a run at get at least a wild card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are yet another surprise team in the NFL, and a lucky one at that. This team does not have a great offense, nor defense, nor special teams (save for Scobee who has done brilliantly this season) but are a solid team, with luck (outscored by thirty points so far) and off to a good start (3-2) to the season. Playoff Forecast: Low Chance. While the Jaguars are a solid team, this AFC is not going to allow an average team to reach a playoff berth, and the AFC south is the most competitive division, top to bottom, thus far.
Houston Texans: The Texans opened the season with a bang, taking out the Colts, but have not been steady all season. With losses to the Cowboys and Giants, yet wins over Indy and Washington, this Houston team looks like a streaky team at 3-2, which will need to hit teams at the right time in order to be successful. Playoff Forecast: Average chance. The Texans need to make the playoffs if they want to make a blip on the Texas sporting radar, and it may be the right year to do so with the Cowboys in last place and Texas not playing for a BCS championship. That said, I am not a believer in the Texans yet, because they need to maintain a level of consistency to win and make the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans are a puzzling team, led by Jeff Fisher’s coaching. With a fairly young defense, Fisher has engineered a team that scores just enough points to win, and allow just enough points to have a chance to win, but at 3-2 and alternating wins and losses thus far does not translate into success. Playoff Forecast: Low chance. This Titans team may be able to hang with the big boys (losing to Pittsburgh by a score) and able to destroy lesser teams (Oakland and Dallas) but without playmakers on offense beyond Chris Johnson, an average season is in store for Tennessee.
Eastern Division
Buffalo Bills: “And with the first pick of the NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select…” The Bills this season are the only winless team left in the AFC (0-5) with maybe two winnable games (Cleveland and Detroit, both at home) where the Bills have a shot at getting a win. The offense has not produced, and the defense has allowed the most points in the NFL with 161 points already surrendered. Playoff Forecast: Nonexistent. The Bills have no chance at a playoff berth, because of their division, their conference, and their team. Maybe in 2012.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are a hard team to evaluate, because they have beaten two losing teams (Minnesota and Buffalo) and lost to two winning teams (Pats and Jets) leading to their 2-2 record. The Dolphins won by slim margins, leading me to believe that luck and timing had a hand in their wins, so the Dolphins are an average team at best, with a fluid identity. Playoff Forecast: Very Low. I was tempted to put none here, with the division crown essentially a two-horse race between New York and New England, but those two teams both have a select group of players that could falter later in the season, leading to losses. Only if the Jets and Pats begin to struggle will Miami make the playoffs.
New York Jets: The loudest team in the NFL, a sexy pick for the Super Bowl, and a team that has played very well this season save for the opener—the Jets are perhaps the most written about team in history. The media loves the Jets and the Jets love the media, so until the Jets start to lose regularly, expect to be sick of them like most of America is. That said, the Jets have looked solid this year and have a core to win. Playoff Forecast: High chance. The Jets are a team that has a solid defense, a new-look running game, and a developing passing game, which translates to wins on the football field. The Jets will make the playoffs, but whether they win, there lies in the hands of Mark Sanchez.
New England Patriots: This may be the end of New England, as we know it, with the core of the three rings and the undefeated regular season slowly breaking up. Brady is still a top-flight quarterback, and the offense can score points with anyone, but the defense is young and may wither as the season progresses. Playoff Forecast: High Chance. Even with the loss of Faulk and trade of Moss, New England still has enough offense to outscore most teams, so if the defense holds up the team will succeed.
Playoff Seeding:
Now that you know what I think of the teams, here is how I have the playoffs set right now.
North Crown: Steelers
West Crown: Chargers
South Crown: Colts
East Crown: Jets
Wild Cards: Patriots and Ravens
Check later for my NFC review and after Week 10 and Week 15 for new rundowns of both conferences.
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