Matt 1Roger Federer Won't Win the 2008 Australian Tennis Open
January 17th 2008 05:00
The most dominant player in men's tennis today is an unbackable favourite to win his third straight Australian Open tournament. The first Grand Slam of the year kicked off at the beginning of the week with Swiss Roger Federer starting at $1.65 with bookmakers across the host country. And, with form, crowd support and history on his side, you'd think he'd win it again this year, wouldn't you? But you'd be wrong. The Grand Slam tournament synonymous with upsets and surprise finalists will produce another one this year. The mighty and seemingly unbeatable (except on clay) Federer will not even reach this years final.
A likeable, charming character and effortless tennis player, the Swiss is attempting to match Pete Sampras' Grand Slam titles record of 14 this year, currently sitting on 12 after taking the Australian, Wimbledon and US Open crowns in 2007. His record at Melbourne Park has been typically impressive. Since his breakthrough victory there in 2004, he has won the tournament on two more occasions and made a semi-final appearance three years ago. Overall, his performances on hard-court have been nothing short of outstanding, taking on all comers and emerging triumphant. And, after easy wins in the first two rounds again this year and admissions from the champ himself that he is "100% fit", the winner looks obvious once more.
There is a difference this time however. For the first time since his 2004 victory, Federer looks to have come into the first Grand Slam of the year with few recent competitive hit-outs behind him. Pulling out of the Kooyong event that he has traditionally played would not have been good for his preparation, particularly when considering the only tennis he has played since his end-of-season Masters win was against a 36 year old and very much retired, Pete Sampras. While he will speak of now "feeling great" and that it was "important" to withdraw from Kooyong, his fitness and game will be put to the test come the fourth round, quarters and semis in Melbourne. I did note the ease at which he defeated wily veteran Fabrice Santoro and how he cruised through his first round but these can hardly be considered acid tests for what is to come next week.
Moving on to play miserly Serbian Janko Tipsarevic will test the great man, after the former knocked red-hot (and red-haired) Australian Chris Guccione out of the Open in straight sets. If he gets past Tipsarevic, which he should, he is likely to meet tricky 13th seed Tomas Berdych in the fourth round and then perhaps 2007 runner-up, Chilean Fernando "Gonzo" Gonzalez. And, winning those matches will only take him to the semis! The semi-finals provide the biggest danger for Federer with out-of-form hometown hero Lleyton Hewitt or talented Serbian crowd-pleaser Novak Djokovic waiting. Both would be looking to pay Federer back for previous Grand Slam defeats. Thus, this is where I predict the greatest tennis player of our generation will fall, due to lack of match practice more than anything else.
I am sure many readers will doubt a Federer failure and my theory of a surprise winner or finalist. However, when looking over recent Australian Open history, the Men's Honour Board is full of forgotten finalists, one-year wonders and unlikely runners-up. In 1997 US powerhouse "Pistol" Pete Sampras overcame up-and-coming Spaniard Carlos Moya. In 1998 the fall of Sampras, Rafter and absence of Agassi saw two surprising finalists, eventual winner Petr Korda and Chilean left-hander Marcelo Rios. Since then other underdogs to reach the ultimate match of the tournament include: Thomas Enqvist, Arnaud Clement, 2002 winner Thomas Johansson, Rainer Schuttler and more recently, Marcos Baghdatis and Fernando Gonzalez. Already we have seen exciting Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga knock off more fancied opponents. He may join the aforementioned names, being a dark horse to reach the tournament's latter stages.
With Federer out of the tournament I'd expect Kooyong winner Andy Roddick or determined Spaniard Rafael Nadal to emerge out of the bottom half of the draw and claim the title. It would be a first time Melbourne win for both of them. Djokovic will have time soon.
And Roger, well, he's proven so many people wrong throughout his career. He's a champion, a proven winner and has the best record of any current player at this tournament. I'd like to see him win too... I just don't think he will, this time.
A likeable, charming character and effortless tennis player, the Swiss is attempting to match Pete Sampras' Grand Slam titles record of 14 this year, currently sitting on 12 after taking the Australian, Wimbledon and US Open crowns in 2007. His record at Melbourne Park has been typically impressive. Since his breakthrough victory there in 2004, he has won the tournament on two more occasions and made a semi-final appearance three years ago. Overall, his performances on hard-court have been nothing short of outstanding, taking on all comers and emerging triumphant. And, after easy wins in the first two rounds again this year and admissions from the champ himself that he is "100% fit", the winner looks obvious once more.
There is a difference this time however. For the first time since his 2004 victory, Federer looks to have come into the first Grand Slam of the year with few recent competitive hit-outs behind him. Pulling out of the Kooyong event that he has traditionally played would not have been good for his preparation, particularly when considering the only tennis he has played since his end-of-season Masters win was against a 36 year old and very much retired, Pete Sampras. While he will speak of now "feeling great" and that it was "important" to withdraw from Kooyong, his fitness and game will be put to the test come the fourth round, quarters and semis in Melbourne. I did note the ease at which he defeated wily veteran Fabrice Santoro and how he cruised through his first round but these can hardly be considered acid tests for what is to come next week.
Moving on to play miserly Serbian Janko Tipsarevic will test the great man, after the former knocked red-hot (and red-haired) Australian Chris Guccione out of the Open in straight sets. If he gets past Tipsarevic, which he should, he is likely to meet tricky 13th seed Tomas Berdych in the fourth round and then perhaps 2007 runner-up, Chilean Fernando "Gonzo" Gonzalez. And, winning those matches will only take him to the semis! The semi-finals provide the biggest danger for Federer with out-of-form hometown hero Lleyton Hewitt or talented Serbian crowd-pleaser Novak Djokovic waiting. Both would be looking to pay Federer back for previous Grand Slam defeats. Thus, this is where I predict the greatest tennis player of our generation will fall, due to lack of match practice more than anything else.
I am sure many readers will doubt a Federer failure and my theory of a surprise winner or finalist. However, when looking over recent Australian Open history, the Men's Honour Board is full of forgotten finalists, one-year wonders and unlikely runners-up. In 1997 US powerhouse "Pistol" Pete Sampras overcame up-and-coming Spaniard Carlos Moya. In 1998 the fall of Sampras, Rafter and absence of Agassi saw two surprising finalists, eventual winner Petr Korda and Chilean left-hander Marcelo Rios. Since then other underdogs to reach the ultimate match of the tournament include: Thomas Enqvist, Arnaud Clement, 2002 winner Thomas Johansson, Rainer Schuttler and more recently, Marcos Baghdatis and Fernando Gonzalez. Already we have seen exciting Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga knock off more fancied opponents. He may join the aforementioned names, being a dark horse to reach the tournament's latter stages.
With Federer out of the tournament I'd expect Kooyong winner Andy Roddick or determined Spaniard Rafael Nadal to emerge out of the bottom half of the draw and claim the title. It would be a first time Melbourne win for both of them. Djokovic will have time soon.
And Roger, well, he's proven so many people wrong throughout his career. He's a champion, a proven winner and has the best record of any current player at this tournament. I'd like to see him win too... I just don't think he will, this time.
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